TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Puzzle of the Chinese Middle Class
Andrew J. Nathan
Seymour Martin Lipset argued that economic development would enlarge the middle class, and that middle class would support democracy. To what extent will this general proposition prove true of China?

Latin America's New Turbulance
I. Can Democracy Win in Venezuela?
Benigno Alarcon, Angel E. Alvarez, and Manuel Hidalgo
Venezuela's competitive authoritarian regime now confronts a highly mobilized opposition with a large majority in the legislature. What are prospects for successful democratic change amidst a deteriorating security situation and an economy in freefall?

II. The End of the Kirchner Era
Noam Lupu
With a skillfully conveyed message of managerial competence and an electorate disenchanted by a floundering economy and the outgoing incumbent's confrontational style, Mauricio Macri demonstrated that a non-Peronist can win Argentina's presidency.

III. Crisis and Integrity in Brazil
Marcus Andre Melo
Public anger at revelations of widespread corruption, along with the rising cost of coalition politics, has brought Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff to the brink of impeachment. Yet the crisis has also revealed the strength of the country's law-enforcement and judicial institutions.

IV. Mexico's Stalled Reforms
Gustavo A. Flores-Marcias
The long-ruling PRI staged a comeback in 2012 behind a young president touting a reformist agenda, but Enrique Pena Nieto's early successes have been eclipsed by government underperformance and a continued failure to restore public security.

V. Trouble in the "Northern Triangle"
Forrest D. Colburn and Arturo Cruz S.
Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador are weighed down by high crime, sluggish economies, and heavy reliance on remittances. And when significant political change has has taken place, it has resulted in frightening political fragmentation.

The Freedom House Survey for 2015
Anxious Dictators, Wavering Democrats
Arch Puddington and Tyler Roylance
In 2015, the tenth consecutive year of decline in global freedom, the world was battered by overlapping crises, Spurring harsh authoritarian crackdowns and revealing the leading democracies' lack of conviction.

Burma Votes for Change
I. The Challenges Ahead
Igor Blazevic
Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy swept Burma's November 2015 elections. Will the new NLD-led government be able to live up the high expectations that it will deliver better governance, national reconciliation, and some form of federalism?

II. The New Configuration of Power
Min Zin
Even though Burma's military seems to have accepted the NLD's stunning election victory, it can still use an array of constitutional provisions to hamstring the incoming NLD government.

III. Clashing Attitudes Toward Democracy
Bridget Welsh, Kai-Ping Huang, and Yun-han Chu
What does public opinion tell us about Burma's longer-term prospects for democracy? The Asian Barometer Survey reveals contradictory attitudes regarding democracy and democratic values among the citizens of Burma.

Turkey's Two Elections: The AKP Comes Back
Ziya Onis
In power since 2002, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed as if it might be losing its hold when Turkish voters went to the polls in June 2015. Yet that "hung election" gave way to another contest in November, and the AKP came roaring back.

The Struggle for Subnational Democracy
Jacqueline Behrend and Laurence Whitehead
Ten of the world's twelve largest countries are "electoral democracies." Yet a look at politics beneath the national level reveals patterns of illiberalism that mark out a new frontier for democratic research and activism.

BOOK IN REVIEW
Making Democratic Waves
Sheri Berman
A review of Making Waves: Democratic Contention in Europe and Latin America Since the Revolutions of 1848 by Kurt Weyland.

ELECTION WATCH
DOCUMENTS ON DEMOCRACY
NEWS AND NOTES