TABLE OF CONTENTS

Transition in China? More Likely than You Think
Minxin Pei
Evidence from social science and history suggests that China is entering a "transition zone" that will threaten its capacity to maintain both authoritarian rule and high levels of economic growth.

The Specter Haunting Europe
I. Distinguishing Liberal Democracy's Challengers
Takis S. Pappas
Liberal democracy in Europe today is under siege from a variety of political forces, but is critical to recognize the distinctions among them.

II. Will the German Center Hold?
Timo Lochocki
Europe's democratic stability hinges on Germany, but a far-right challenger is on the rise. Can the country's long-dominant centrist parties hold on?

III. "Heritage Populism" and France's National Front
Dominique Reynie
Once protest party, the right-wing National Front sought to recast itself for electoral success. How will Marine Le Pen fare in the 2017 presidential race?

IV. Populism and Protest in Poland
Joanna Fomina and Jacek Kucharczyk
Once the poster child for successful postcommunist transitions to democracy, Poland is now governed by populist nationalists. What happened?

V. The Lost Left
Sheri Berman
Post-1945 Western Europe benefited greatly from center-left parties offering real solutions to real problems. Where has that left gone?

VI. Surging Illiberalism in the East
Jacques Rupnik
The crisis of liberal democracy is Europe-wide, but it has assumed an especially intense form in Central and Eastern Europe.

VII. The Unraveling of the Post-1989 Order
Ivan Krastev
What some had thought would be the "end of history" has instead turned out to be the "new world disorder." Democratic liberalism may have no new ideological rival, but order identities are powerfully reasserting themselves.

Tunisia: Ennahda's New Course
Abdou Filali-Ansary
Tunisia is a small country, but its influential Islamist party has taken a big step by separating its political wing from its religious activities.

Iraq's Year of Rage
I. Electing A Strongman
Julio C. Teehankee and Mark R. Thompson
The surprise victory of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines' May 2016 presidential election represents a major shift in the liberal-democratic regime established thirty years ago after the "people power" revolution.

II. Elite Democracy Disrupted?
David G. Timberman
Duterte promised voters that would swiftly reduce crime and poverty and enact constitutional change.

Peru: A Close Win for Continuity
Eduardo Dargent and Paula Munoz
Peru's economic boom is over and newly elected president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski faces a Congress dominated by opposition parties, putting him in a more precarious position than his predecessors.

When Dictators Die
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz
What political consequences can we expect when aging dictators die while in power? A fifth of the world's autocracies are facing such a possibility, but the evidence shows that this may not augur well for democracy.

BOOKS IN REVIEW
Particularism's Empire
Edward Aspinall
A review of The Quest for Good Governance: How Societies Develop Control of Corruption by Alina Mungiu-Pippidi.

ELECTION WATCH
DOCUMENTS ON DEMOCRACY
NEWS AND NOTES
INDEX